SHINZO ABE, Japan’s prime minister, has never laid claim to an ability to see into the soul of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s leader, as America’s former president George W. Bush once did. But during no fewer than five meetings in the last year alone, including Mr Abe’s recent trip to the Sochi Olympics, a relationship has blossomed. One reason, of course, is that Mr Abe’s overtures have been spurned elsewhere. Neither Xi Jinping, China’s president, nor Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s, have so far consented to a summit. Instead, Mr Abe has pursued tighter relations with Japan’s powerful neighbour to the north. Hopes were high that he could even pull off an historic diplomatic breakthrough. Russia and Japan have yet to sign a peace treaty ending the second world war thanks to a dispute over four small islands lying just off Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost main island. Just after Japan surrendered in 1945, Russia seized them, encountering no resistance.
Mr Putin’s creeping annexation of Crimea has intruded roughly into the diplomatic courtship. On March 12th Japan joined fellow G7 nations in signing a strong statement condemning Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yet top officials appear still to be clinging to the earlier mood. In comments to the press, Fumio Kishida, the foreign minister, almost echoed China’s government, which has strenuously avoided any criticism of Mr Putin. He called on “all parties”—not just Russia but also Ukraine—to “behave with maximum self-restraint and responsibility”, in a far weaker statement than the G7 declaration.
Mr Abe, for his part, has so far kept quiet about whether Japan will join America and the European Union in applying sanctions against Russia. As America and the EU prepare this week to impose asset freezes and visa bans against Russian officials, Tokyo has taken no decision yet on whether or not it will join the effort. One important consideration, in addition to improving diplomatic relations, is that Russia supplies a tenth of Japan’s natural gas, and 5% of its crude oil. With nuclear power plants shut down post-Fukushima, Japan is particularly jittery just now about the security of its energy supplies. A peace treaty, it was hoped, would allow massive Japanese investment in Russian energy resources, ensuring a more diversified supply.
Yet Tokyo has little real choice but to act alongside its G7 peers. The US-Japan alliance is one powerful reason. Michael Green, a former National Security Council official and an expert on the alliance, recently warned that Japan risks undermining its status as a member of the liberal-democratic club of nations if it fails to join in sanctions. And Japan can hardly take a soft line on the use of force to seize territory, while loudly denouncing attempts by China to challenge its sovereignty over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea (which China claims and calls the Diaoyus).
As for the much lower-key territorial dispute with Russia, Mr Abe’s government certainly expected an agreement at some point during his term. Russia has in the past offered to return the two tiniest islands of the group of four that Japan names the Northern Territories, included by its neighbour as part of its Kurile chain of islets. Tokyo has always rejected such a compromise, demanding all four. Yet many observers expected Mr Putin to make some further concession over the two largest islands, Etorofu and Kunashiri, opening the way to a peace treaty. Those expectations, according to Japan’s diplomats, were in any case hopelessly optimistic. There has in fact been little flexibility on the Russian side, they say.
For the time being, at least, Japan can safely join in western financial sanctions against Russian officials with no immediate fears for its energy supplies. The EU, after all, is also heavily dependent on Russia’s oil and gas reserves. But Mr Abe can certainly kiss goodbye to his ambition of signing a peace treaty. Mr Putin is now even more unlikely to cede any territorial ground. One welcome consequence is that there will now be still more pressure on Mr Abe to mend Japan’s strained relations with its other important neighbours, South Korea and China.
