US Edition 
The sanctions fight with Russia could make Britain go hungry
We are used to having plentiful food, and at an affordable price. But the crisis in Ukraine should remind us that we cannot take Britain's food security for granted
Savvy scientific decisions to protect our own food production and reduce dependence on Russia can pay dividends for the environment, and ensure the UK population can still enjoy its daily bread.
Wheat is the second most important crop in the global food system, delivering a staggering 1.8 petacalories per year (that’s 1800 million million). It serves as the basis of a significant amount of the sorts of food we eat: we consume on average two kilograms of wheat-based foods per week – be it pizza, pasta, or a slice of toast in the morning.
Russia is a major producer of wheat, and thanks to optimum growing temperatures this year is expecting a bumper crop of over 50 million tonnes, a significant amount of which is exported via the Crimean ports. However, sanctions imposed on Russian banks are likely to drive up wheat prices in 2015, as Russian farmers will find it harder to access finance to produce their main crop. In a tit-for-tat move, Russia has banned food imports from the EU, US and Australia.
These events are a sharp reminder that the international trade in food we take for granted can be built on shaky foundations. Last week, the National Farmers Union pointed out that if there were a significant hiatus in international trade, the UK is potentially exposed, as we produce only about 62 per cent of the food we consume.
Over the next 34 years, global demand for food is expected to almost double if current trends continue. It’s not just political tensions that could affect our food supply into the future. Climate change is gradually warming the earth, and also creating more extreme weather. When it is hot and dry, it is likely to get hotter and drier. When it is raining, the rainfall is likely to fall harder for longer.
Ensuring our own farming sector in Europe stays productive in this changing world is an important part of insuring our ability to access staple foods. But this requires research and innovation to find the best ways to grow food, and encourage their adoption by farmers.
According to the latest crop production data modelled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), there is significant scope for research and innovation to translate into more productive agriculture in North West Europe. For example, IFPRI suggests the potential gain in yields from heat tolerant wheat, given climate change, is over 20 per cent. In 2013, the Government recognised the need to invest in this area and it announced its “Agri-Tech Strategy”.
But growing more food in Europe must not be at the expense of the environment. Agriculture is of course a major culprit for affecting the environment through fertilisers and other synthetic inputs affecting water and air quality, producing the greenhouse gases that exacerbate climate change and affecting biodiversity.
Part of the solution to having productive agriculture, but with lower environmental impacts, is to increase farming’s efficiency.
One method to increase efficiency is precision agriculture. This practice aims to deliver the right inputs, at the right times, in the right places and in the right amounts (the “4Rs”), often by using GPS-assisted delivery of agricultural inputs, as well as low-tech management practices that aim to control all field parameters. By getting input delivery right, it can boost yields, but it also minimises over-application and its environmental impacts and thereby increases efficiency
Precision agriculture is reportedly already used by around half of UK farmers, but investment that would ensure even wider adoption of this approach is estimated to boost wheat yields in the UK by 25 per cent.
We have the science-base to make our European farming sector more resilient to the impacts of the weather, more environmentally friendly and to also maintain or grow its productivity. This is surely important to maintain our essential food supply in the face of potential climatic or geopolitical uncertainty.
We are used to having plentiful food, and at an affordable price. This can continue with good research, innovation and uptake into farming. The Lord’s Prayer reminds us to be thankful for our daily bread; but the Russian sanctions are a small pinprick of a reminder that we can’t take having daily bread for granted.
Professor Tim Benton leads the UK’s Global Food Security programme and lectures at the University of Leeds