Romania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19122 | 19049 | 18900 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23940 | 26670 | 29220 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.1 | 0.5 | -3.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1125 | 1242 | 1418 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.2 | -6.3 | -6.2 | -5.7 | -4.3 | -3.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.5 | 47.5 | 50.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.2 | -9.2 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -6.0 | -6.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 9933 | 10902 | 7796 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 56.5 | 50.6 | 52.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
While high fiscal and current account deficits are lasting features of the Romanian economy, they do not pose any imminent danger. Fiscal austerity will not be implemented in the current election year. Economic growth will be about 3% in 2024, fuelled by bullish household demand but hampered by sluggish foreign demand and the slow arrival of EU funds. Fiscal consolidation will dampen growth in 2025, while external demand and private investment will boost it to 3.3% in 2025 and further to 3.8% in 2026.