C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001206 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KV, SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: EUR/SCE DAS JONES, VISIT TO BELGRADE (NOVEMBER 16-17) Classified By: Bradford Bell, Acting Political Chief; reasons 1.4 (b, d ). Summary ------- 1. (C) Serbian government leaders told Deputy Assistant Secretary Stuart Jones during his visit to Belgrade that Serbia is looking to move beyond EULEX deployment in Kosovo and to engage in the region, but that Kosovo would remain a difficult issue. In separate meetings on November 17 with Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dacic, Deputy Prime Minister Mladen Dinkic, and Ministry of Defense State Secretary Dusan Spasojevic, Jones called for a deeper and broader relationship geared toward Serbia's Euro-Atlantic integration. All acknowledged that 2009 would be a difficult year economically for Serbia and voiced concern on whether the government could deliver on its pro-European agenda. Despite well-rehearsed differences over Kosovo, DAS Jones' visit was well-received within the government as it looks to broaden our bilateral engagement. End Summary. Kosovo: Getting Beyond EULEX ----------------------------- 2. (C) Serbia wants to remove Kosovo from the domestic and international agenda but can only do so after a deal on EULEX (EU Rule of Law Mission) is "legalized" through the UN Security Council, Jeremic told DAS Jones. Jeremic said that his government was anxious to "de-Kosovize Serbian politics" but could offer no more flexibility on EULEX talks. Jeremic told Jones that Serbia had given all it could on EULEX, in spite of strong domestic political opposition. Serbia will "swallow a brick" with EULEX's deployment, Jeremic said, but would do so in order to move it off the agenda so that Serbia could focus on EU integration. Jeremic was worried, however, that without a final deal soon, Serbia would be "caught offsides" and without a backup strategy on Kosovo. Jones and Ambassador Munter cautioned Jeremic that Serbia would be held responsible for ensuring a peaceful atmosphere in Northern Kosovo throughout the EULEX deployment ) not just after the initial deployment. 3. (C) Kosovo would continue to be a thorn if it comes at the cost of Serbia's integration with Europe, government leaders told Jones. The more Serbia is integrated into regional structures, the more relaxed Serbia would become on Kosovo, Spasojevic said, citing the Southeast European Defense Ministerial (SEDM) as a possible example. Leaders asked for advanced coordination on sensitive Kosovo issues. Spasojevic agreed with Jones that ultimately there must be a direct channel for communication between Belgrade and Pristina in order to prevent violence and further misunderstanding. Financial Crisis Will Hurt --------------------------- 4. (C) Serbia's leaders were also aware of the costs of the looming economic downturn. The global financial crisis would hinder Serbia's economic growth in 2009, Dinkic told Jones. Given the financial challenges in the U.S. and the transition in administration, Dinkic foresaw no new significant U.S. investment in Serbia in the near term. To get through the crisis, Dinkic said that Serbia would borrow as much as possible from International Financial Institutions to finance necessary infrastructure projects, would aggressively attract investors particularly in the automobile and high-tech sectors, and would cut government bureaucracy and costs. Jeremic voiced concern that with the financial crisis the EU could move slower on Serbia's integration. Being blocked by the EU, coupled with an economic downturn and the lack of new foreign direct investment, could be "a recipe for trouble," Jeremic said, foreshadowing a difficult domestic political situation if the ruling coalition could not deliver. Socialists Assure Government is Stable -------------------------------------- 5. (C) In contrast, Dacic was less pessimistic, and confidently said that the government's current ruling coalition was stable. Speaking in his capacity as First Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Dacic assured DAS Jones that the government was focused on long-term policy. He said the SPS was considering entering into a long-term coalition agreement with President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) in order to strengthen his party. BELGRADE 00001206 002 OF 002 Regional Cooperation and Growing Rhetoric with Croatia --------------------------------------------- --------- 6. (C) Serbia needed to engage with its neighbors, particularly on security and rule of law issues, but leaders noted worsening relations with Croatia. Dacic called for increased regional cooperation on transnational issues such as transport, customs, infrastructure and organized crime, noting his cooperation with the Croatian government on investigating the assassination of Croatian newspaper owner Pukanic. Spasojevic said mil-mil relations with Croatia were improving but noted a strained political relationship. Croatia fears Serbia as a regional leader that will leave Croatia in "the back seat," Spasojevic said. Croatia is "incapable of helping us," Jeremic said, noting growing tensions between the neighbors on their pending International Court of Justice case stemming from mutual charges of genocide in the 1990's (septel). The FM stated that the Croatian ICJ case would require Serbia to counter-sue, also on genocide grounds. Jeremic insisted that the Serb case against Croatia for ethnic cleansing is stronger than the Croatian case. He acknowledged that the Bosnia and Herzegovina,s case against Serbia was powerful, but the Croatian case was less clear-cut. Jeremic was more confident on Bosnia, stating "as long as the region is on a European trajectory, Bosnia will be stable." Jones commended President Tadic,s constructive remarks on BiH the previous week but warned that Republika Srbska,s bad behaviour could complicate Serbia,s European perspective. "Don,t underestimate (RS PM) Dodik's capacity to miscalculate," he urged. Jeremic re-assured that Tadic and Dodik had a good relationship and the message to Dodik was clear. Broadening the Bilateral Relationship ------------------------------------- 7. (C) Interlocutors were interested in deepening the bilateral relationship. Dinkic said that he would support a renewed effort to negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty with the United States. If it would simplify and speed the process, Dinkic was amenable to negotiating such a treaty in a regional context, to include Macedonia and Montenegro. Spasojevic said he would encourage further mil-mil cooperation through the State Partnership Program with Ohio. Dacic thanked Jones for U.S. support in police and judicial reform and asked that we find ways to enhance cooperation. The Public Message ------------------ 8. (SBU) All major Belgrade media reported on DAS Jones, visit. In his interview to Beta news agency, which was reprinted by major Serbian dailies, Jones stressed that he arrived on his first visit to Belgrade with the goals of "encouraging a partnership between the U.S. and Serbia and improving cooperation, for which there are numerous possibilities." Though coverage was straightforward, media focused on DAS Jones' statement to Beta that "The UN Security Council's (UNSC) Presidential Statement is not a precondition for the deployment of the EULEX mission in Kosovo." Both the Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior issued press releases on their meetings with Jones, highlighting the discussion on the political and security situation in the region and our bilateral cooperation on issues such as police and security. Comment ------- 9. (C) Getting through the pending EULEX deployment and the global economic downturn will burn some of the political capital of the current coalition government, but despite Jeremic's cautions, Serbia's pro-European government is stable and secure and will weather the strain. DAS Jones' timely visit showed Serbia that the United States is prepared and willing to deepen our relationship, even during these difficult times. It is a message that we will continuously repeat and demonstrate in the months to come. 10. (U) Deputy Assistant Secretary Jones has cleared on this cable. End Comment. MUNTER

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